4 Mental Models for Switching Jobs

My first hand learnings from switching 5 jobs in 7 years.

It hasn't been a long career for me yet, but it has come with a lot of learnings. I have switched jobs, some may say, more than my fair share. By the way, I don't know what's a fair method of switching jobs is - if you're in a place you don't like or aren't adding enough value, you move out, sooner than later. That should be appreciated rather than looked down upon.

Anyhow, I was lucky to be at the right place at the right time when I took a plunge into SaaS. It was an exponentially growing niche with more jobs than people - it still is, and you should very much consider getting in. At all points of my career, I have had more than few jobs to consider and I have always chosen the best of them. However, the parameters to choose the best have changed over the years.

Finally, I think I have few dependable mental models that I can rely upon either for myself or my friends who want to jump onto a new opportunity - and not just because the new company is offering a 40% hike instead of the market rate of 30%.

Mental Model 1: Velocity vs Speed.

Ok. I promised I'll share the models of deciding whether to take the next offer or not, but this one's a model that precedes them. This one's about IF to consider switching and WHY.

Do you remember the difference between Speed and Velocity? Let me refresh your memory.

Speed is how fast something moves.

Velocity is Speed with a Direction.

What does that mean? It means, however fast your career might be moving in a particular company, it doesn't matter if it isn't going in the direction you want it to go.

I have a common way of narrating this to my friends for easier consumption - Imagine you are in a bus, it's the most comfortable bus, at the best possible speed, and it's moving without any jolts. The only catch is, it's not going toward your destination. Would you catch it?

When I was a Management Trainee at Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company, I almost aced it. I finished my year at more than 100% target achievement. I was rewarded a full bonus. And within a month of being confirmed, promoted, and paid, I was out. The bus wasn't going in my direction.

Mental Model 2: Think Like a VC.

Most of the jobs I have had have been at startups, hence this might be a bit specific. Think like a VC is exactly what it is. Hat-tip to Siddharth Deswal for teaching me this. Till today, I check with him before I accept an offer and we mostly discuss the things I am outlining below.

A VC or a Venture Capitalist evaluates a company on multiple parameters before they even consider investing their money. While that list is particularly large, you can at least borrow their mindset and evaluate it for the job and function you're interested in.

For the marketing function, these evaluation parameters become:

1. Is there an established, big enough market?

   An established market gives you an idea of the growth that you can expect, as well as acts as the guardrails for the expectation from marketing.

2. Is there a predictable growth in terms of net-new ARR?

   This metric tells you the presence of a product-market fit. In easier words, does the market realize that it needs the product, and also buying it to serve those needs, in a predictable fashion.

3. Is there a product-channel fit?

   Is there at least one or better, two channels that are, sort of, getting any predictable leads through the door? Something that you can amplify. The metric to understand here is, if you put a dollar in a channel, can it bring back a dollar in Lifetime value.

4. Does the founder appreciate marketing?

   This one is something the VCs don't need to ask. But you need to. If the founder belongs to the school of thought - "Marketing is for sub-standard products. Good products don't need marketing." - book an Uber before he completes that sentence.

Mental Model 3: Premortem (Modified)

I read about Premortem as a technique on my absolute favorite place on the internet - the Farman Street blog. Highest-ly recommended.

Let's understand what a Premortem is, quickly. When you’re on the verge of making a big decision, you call a meeting. At the meeting, you ask each member of your team to imagine that it’s a year later.

Split them into two groups. Have one group imagine that the effort was an unmitigated disaster. Have the other pretend it was a roaring success. Ask each member to work independently and generate reasons, or better yet, write a story, about why the success or failure occurred. Instruct them to be as detailed as possible, and brutally honest. Next, have each person in the “failure” group read their list or story aloud, and record and collate the reasons. Repeat this process with the “success” group. Finally, use the reasons from both groups to strengthen your plan.

However, what I use, is a modified version of the Premortem technique. What I do is, write both the success and failure scenario myself. I try to gather as much knowledge I can through my interview conversations, reference checks, reading news about the company, doing research about the niche, and listening or reading the founder interviews.

Once I have written both the scenarios, I make a judgment call on what's more probable. If the failure scenario is much more probable, prepare the hard-hitting questions you're going to ask in the next round of interviews.

If the success seems very probable, re-think and make it fool-proof with Inversion, the next mental model.

Mental Model 4: Inversion

Inversion is the simplest way to think in a new way. The model is a mathematical one, but its implication on life is pretty simple: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance"

The great Charlie Munger once wrote in his annual letter to his shareholders: It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.

How does that apply in the job switching scenario? We are all swayed away by strong dreams and we follow men (and women) with conviction on even the flimsiest of grounds. We chase that spark of brilliance, and more times than not, we fail.

I am not implying - don't take risks. In fact, I should be the last person to suggest that. I am just saying - don't be stupid about it.

There are more ways to think about things, which I have inculcated in the due course of time, and my decisions are on most times, a mix of more models than mentioned here. I suggest you read more about them, they are useful. While I will continue to write more about them and their applications for me personally.

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P.S: Yet another newsletter - Figuring it out.

I am committing to writing again. I will be sharing stuff mostly about my learnings on the path of setting things up at Insent - the challenges, first-hand insights, and successes/failures.

I will also be writing posts like the one above, once in a while.

It will be published weekly, most probably on the weekend. It will be good if you subscribe - helps keep the motivation up.

If you have received this email as a forward, reply to me at rohitkmsrivastav@gmail.com with your opinion. I’d love it.